A recent Economist article got me to thinking about this topic as all things have cycles and this is what this blog is here to discuss as being human animals we not only create these cycles, yet live within their creation. As it’s here “mid-life” comes in to play as it always sounds better to say “than half dead”, yet we aren’t to wax about a 20 something blonde, nor a fast car as this subject is far more exciting being 30 year mark for the Indian Outsourcing industry as the Granddad of them all, Infosys has turned the 30 and its founder and Chairman has decided the time was right to take the money and run. In leaving the reins in the hands of others we are seeing a trend across the “tech giants”, as for one reason or another we are seeing changes at the top of these firms as well as in the markets. Yet today what interests me the most is what is happening in India as what was a third world nation (where many parts remain) steps forward into the spot light of the world market solely based on its human capital and it matures what is the outcome and what can we learn from it.
As during the last Wall Street meltdown in mid-2009, the revenue growth of IT firms’ slowed to near zero as customers, especially ones in the financial industry, slashed their spending like there was no tomorrow. Yet activity did bounce back in time as their clients recovered some of their nerve along with furthering efforts to cut costs through outsourcing and right shoring their back offices. Yet as it appears that we may be heading for a sequel to the 2008/2009 as the second shoe prepares to drop how will they fare in light of a second double down if you will?
What has me pondering this is a far more social question then one of simple rote “right-shoring” politics and arguments of its ethicality or economic viability. As here again is where the Economist [magazine] shines as many people grab the Sports page of the local paper, I grab the world economic data and there is no where better then the back of the Economist. As it’s here I’ve noticed something interesting when it comes to India which seems to be a “tell” to the “tail” if you will as in a “telling tail”.
Here India is unique if you will because it is the only high populous country in the sub-Asian region which sports a capitalistic economy. Where most others are social hybrids, their conversion has been the closest so at this mid age mark what to the numbers look like then? Well this is what surprised me as not so good, as their Current Account Balance is actually negative at -36 billion which is comparable with another western styled country in region Australia at -33 billion. Interesting stuff their budget is -4.7% of GDP while again “Australia” weights in at half being a mere -2.6%,
Its clear that consumerism has taken hold in India and they are spending money faster than they earn it (sounds like the American way doesn’t it)…